South Carolina 2-0 ATS, and Kentucky is 0-2 ATS. The team that is 0-2 ATS in week 2 facing a 2-0 ATS team has covered 58% of the time over the last 5 years. When I look at this match up I see it as a field goal game. To this point Kentucky really hasn't played well and hasn't had to face the level of competition that South Carolina has. South Carolina has been lucky and has gotten great special teams play and have been fortunate in forcing turnovers, but more so lucky recovering 4 out of the 4 possible fumbles in two games. They also got exceptional special teams play from Deebo Samuel who has returned two kickoffs. All of this has led to what I feel is an inflated line and a line I want to take advantage of.
South Carolina does not deserve to be a 6.5-7 point favorite even if they are at home, motivated to avoid a 4 game losing streak to Kentucky. Both teams return a ton of starters from last year. Both teams are slow paced teams running 60 plays per game. Meaning 7 point spread is extremely high when you consider neither team wants to push the pace. South Carolina is 108th in plays per game and Kentucky is 120th.
Everyone is giving Jake Bentley a ton of credit, but he really has not looked like a difference maker through two games. His stats are nice but not worth anything in the betting market in my opinion. The Gamecocks offense ranks 92nd passing, and 107th rushing the ball and their defense is ranked 60th and 121st vs. the pass. That has a lot to do with the schedule, but still why is this team a 7 point favorite.
Kentucky returns 17 starters and 4 on the offensive line. This was a team that beat Louisville on the road. I think they will be able to move the ball with Sr. QB Stephen Johnson and RB Bennie Snell. The turnover margin is what is going to decide this game. I like Kentucky's secondary which has height and their Safety Mike Edwards and LB Jordan Jones are arguably the best two defensive players on the field and they both reside on Kentucky's sideline. I still think South Carolina is a season away and they are very fortunate to be 2-0 at this point. Kentucky is very good at stopping the run with their linebackers and I'm not sold on Jake Bentley quite yet. Kentucky wins if they can continue their ability to stop the run, efficiency defense in the red zone, and if they don't turn the ball over multiple times.
